JuliusBlog has a couple interesting posts regarding the upcoming election. The first is "a series of correlations between past terror alerts and political events unfavorable to the Bush administration". The second is "a chart comparing Bush approval numbers to the timeline of terror alerts".
The chart is based on a fascinating and well-documented site called PROFESSOR POLLKATZ's POOL OF POLLS. The statistics are very thorough and data collection and interpretation methods are described in detail. Skepticism is always advisable when statistics are involved, but I suspect this site is "clean".
Another site, electoral-vote.com, has an interesting map of projected electoral votes (a similar map can be found on the Pool of Polls site). It doesn't look good for Bush (Kerry 327, Bush 211 at time of posting). I wonder if the GOP convention will change things.